28.07.2009
Q.I.K. Market Perspective III/2009
Please find attached the summary and the table of contents of the new market perspectives. You can download the entire file "Q.I.K. Market Perspective – 3rd Quarter 2009" at the end of this page.
SUMMARY
1. 2nd Quarter 2009 Summary
In the 2nd quarter, equity markets posted significant gains. Once again the so called emerging markets were the top performers. On a sector basis, especially bank and real estate titles as well as commodities were able to outperform. Defensive sectors, such as health care, food and beverages or utilities lagged significantly behind the overall market.
Forecast for Q3 2009
The consensus forecastis for a dollar exchange rate of 1.39 for Q3 2009.
The Kathrein & Co. Dollar model currently recommends selling --> USD.
The Kathrein & Co. Dollar model currently recommends selling --> USD.
2. Interest Rate Expectations
The consensus forecastis for an increase of the 10 year Bund yields to 3.5% in the 3rd quarter of 2009.
Short-term interest rates: Currently no rate cuts are expected for the eurozone. In the US, it is speculated that there might be an interest rate hike toward the end of the year.
Short-term interest rates: Currently no rate cuts are expected for the eurozone. In the US, it is speculated that there might be an interest rate hike toward the end of the year.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. Summary
2. Capital Market Review
2.1. Equity Markets - In the 2nd quarter global equity markets rallied. The so called emerging markets were in high demand and once again were among the top performers. On a regional basis, the US equity markets significantly lagged those of Europe and Asia.
2.2. Bonds - The Euro bond market gained 0.66% in the 2nd quarter of 2009.
2.3. Currencies - The USD lost 5.84% against the EURO in the 2nd quarter.
3. Kathrein-Fonds in Review - positive performance for mixed and equity funds, corporates very positive, only government bond funds with very small gains.
3.1. Performance Overview
3.2. Total Return Portfolio Management at Kathrein & Co. - Slight decrease of volatility at continued high levels. The weighting was gradually increased and was at 35% at the end of Q2.
4. Consensus Forecasts for Interest Rates and Currencies
4.1. Long-term Interest Rates - Bund yields increase to 3.5%.
4.2. Short-term Interest Rates – No interest rate measures expected by central banks.
4.3. Currencies – USD rate anticipated at 1.39.
5. Equities
5.1. Stock selection models – The quantitative stock selection models applied to the Kathrein & Co. equity funds, could not post any active results due to the fact that especially stocks with low scores outperformed.
6. Kathrein & Co. Bond Models
6.1. Duration (short-term) – Euro bonds expected to stay range-bound.
7. Kathrein Currency Model - Positive contributions due to dollar hedges during the quarter
7.1. Long-term dollar model (Purchasing Power Parity) – Long-term model price at 1.25.
2. Capital Market Review
2.1. Equity Markets - In the 2nd quarter global equity markets rallied. The so called emerging markets were in high demand and once again were among the top performers. On a regional basis, the US equity markets significantly lagged those of Europe and Asia.
2.2. Bonds - The Euro bond market gained 0.66% in the 2nd quarter of 2009.
2.3. Currencies - The USD lost 5.84% against the EURO in the 2nd quarter.
3. Kathrein-Fonds in Review - positive performance for mixed and equity funds, corporates very positive, only government bond funds with very small gains.
3.1. Performance Overview
3.2. Total Return Portfolio Management at Kathrein & Co. - Slight decrease of volatility at continued high levels. The weighting was gradually increased and was at 35% at the end of Q2.
4. Consensus Forecasts for Interest Rates and Currencies
4.1. Long-term Interest Rates - Bund yields increase to 3.5%.
4.2. Short-term Interest Rates – No interest rate measures expected by central banks.
4.3. Currencies – USD rate anticipated at 1.39.
5. Equities
5.1. Stock selection models – The quantitative stock selection models applied to the Kathrein & Co. equity funds, could not post any active results due to the fact that especially stocks with low scores outperformed.
6. Kathrein & Co. Bond Models
6.1. Duration (short-term) – Euro bonds expected to stay range-bound.
7. Kathrein Currency Model - Positive contributions due to dollar hedges during the quarter
7.1. Long-term dollar model (Purchasing Power Parity) – Long-term model price at 1.25.