05.03.2009
Q.I.K. Market Perspective I/2009
Please find attached the summary and the table of contents of the new market perspectives. You can download the entire file "Q.I.K. Market Perspective – 1st Quarter 2009" at the end of this page.
SUMMARY
1. 4th Quarter 2008 Summary
All established stock markets ended the 4th quarter 2008 in negative territory. As for the year as a whole, Austrian and Dutch stock indices again were the laggards. UK, Swiss and German stocks fared relatively well.
Japanese stocks lost more than the global index - the sharp appreciation of the Japanese yen proved positive for the euro investor.
After a relatively good 3rd quarter, US equities underperformed European stocks for this quarter. The movement of the U.S. dollar only had a minimal impact on the euro performance.
Emerging market equities lost more in the 4th quarter than those of industrialized countries.
2. Forecast for Q1 2009
The consensus forecast is for a U.S. dollar exchange rate of 1.30 for Q1 2009.
The Kathrein & Co. Dollar model currently recommends --> 50% Euro long
3. Interest Expextations
The consensus forecast is for a decline of the 10 year Bund yields to 2.79% in the 1st quarter of 2009.
Short-term interest rates In Europe risk premiums have gone done significantly. The markets do not anticipate any further interest rate action in the U.S. or in Switzerland. Only for the Eurozone a rate cut of 60 bps is expected.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1.Summary
2.Capital Market Review
2.1. Equity Markets - During the 4th quarter 2008, equity indices reached their year-to-date lows. Especially hard hit were emerging market stocks (China, India, South America etc.). In Europe, the East European markets performed very poorly, followed by Austria and the Netherlands. UK equities on the other hand held up relatively well. U.S. indices suffered comparatively more losses than European and Asian markets.
2.2. Bonds - The euro bond market gained 5.98% in the 4th quarter of 2008.
2.3. Currencies - The USD lost 0.34% against the EURO in the 4th quarter.
3.Kathrein-Fonds in Review - Performance of bond funds was positive, that of mixed and equity funds negative
3.1. Performance Overview
3.2. Total Return Portfolio Management at Kathrein & Co. - Sustained high volatility in the markets, therefore the equity ratio is zero.
4.Consensus Forecasts for Interest Rates and Currencies
4.1. Long-term Interest Rates - Bund yields fall slightly to 2.79%. 4.2. Short-term Interest Rates – Rate cuts by FED and ECB expected for Q1. 4.3. Currencies – USD rate anticipated at 1.30
5.Equities -
5.1. Stock selection models – The quantitative stock selection models used for the Kathrein & Co.-Aktienfonds contributed to performance even during this extremely volatile year for equities, and they were able to recognize the trend reversal in the materials sector.
6. Kathrein & Co. Bond Models
6.1. Duration (short-term) – declining yields expected for the Euro bond market.
7. Kathrein Currency Model - Positive contributions due to dollar hedges during the quarter
7.1. Long-term dollar model (Purchasing Power Parity) – Long-term model price at 1.2.
2.Capital Market Review
2.1. Equity Markets - During the 4th quarter 2008, equity indices reached their year-to-date lows. Especially hard hit were emerging market stocks (China, India, South America etc.). In Europe, the East European markets performed very poorly, followed by Austria and the Netherlands. UK equities on the other hand held up relatively well. U.S. indices suffered comparatively more losses than European and Asian markets.
2.2. Bonds - The euro bond market gained 5.98% in the 4th quarter of 2008.
2.3. Currencies - The USD lost 0.34% against the EURO in the 4th quarter.
3.Kathrein-Fonds in Review - Performance of bond funds was positive, that of mixed and equity funds negative
3.1. Performance Overview
3.2. Total Return Portfolio Management at Kathrein & Co. - Sustained high volatility in the markets, therefore the equity ratio is zero.
4.Consensus Forecasts for Interest Rates and Currencies
4.1. Long-term Interest Rates - Bund yields fall slightly to 2.79%. 4.2. Short-term Interest Rates – Rate cuts by FED and ECB expected for Q1. 4.3. Currencies – USD rate anticipated at 1.30
5.Equities -
5.1. Stock selection models – The quantitative stock selection models used for the Kathrein & Co.-Aktienfonds contributed to performance even during this extremely volatile year for equities, and they were able to recognize the trend reversal in the materials sector.
6. Kathrein & Co. Bond Models
6.1. Duration (short-term) – declining yields expected for the Euro bond market.
7. Kathrein Currency Model - Positive contributions due to dollar hedges during the quarter
7.1. Long-term dollar model (Purchasing Power Parity) – Long-term model price at 1.2.
Downloads
- QIK Marktperspektive 2009 1